Saturday, May 12, 2012

Economy 2.0, part 1: space vs Ron Paul

I was reading about the progress that's recently been made on artificial leaves recently, and this has gotten me into a somewhat more hopeful frame of mind.  Instead of fixating on how we're currently making a mess of things - which we're certainly doing - I've been thinking a bit more about some of the changes that I see coming in the next five or ten years, and the more I ponder the future, the less depressed I am.  It seems reasonable to me that we'll solve two big problems in the next decade.  I suspect that we're ten years, at most, away from a better renewable energy technology.  I don't know exactly what that technology will be, although my money is on some variety of artificial photosynthesis or some other nifty way to harness solar power. 

The limiting factor on so many of the things that we do, now, is energy.  Remove that limiting factor, and the world suddenly becomes a great deal more hospitable.  Case in point: water wars.  I've read reports suggesting that we're less than a decade away from major conflicts over water access. In a world where energy costs drop by 90%, however, water is suddenly no longer an issue, as huge desalinization plants become cheap enough to operate around the world.  Everyone's life gets a little better.  Hell, we can pump enough water to turn the Sahara into a breadbasket, if we want to.  I'm amused by the way that this fits with the larger story of the industrial revolution, actually.  On so many levels, industrialization has been built on energy technologies.  First steam power, then a series of other technologies, greatly expanded the amount of energy at our collective disposal.  By doing so, they freed up creative energy in other areas.  If I were looking for novel long-term investment opportunities, I'd focus on fields that will really, really benefit from a vast decrease in the cost of energy.

But, you ask, how does this relate to the eternal struggle between space and Ron Paul?  Well... my secret suspicion is that the founders of Google must loathe Ron Paul, because they're out to bankrupt him.  His financial disclosure statements show that he is deeply invested in gold - surprising nobody.  Could it possibly be a coincidence that the diabolical founders of Google are planning to flood the Earth with inexpensive precious metals from space?  Doubtful.  Of course, the main effect of space mining will be to reduce the cost of many rare metals that are crucial for various industrial processes, but a secondary effect will be to wreak merry havoc on some parts of the commodities markets.  I'd be startled if gold doesn't lose at least half of its value within three years after the launch of the first successful asteroid mining expedition... and expedition which will be much easier in a world where energy is no longer scarce enough to serve as a limiting factor...

So... the science geek side of me is looking forward to the future, and not only because we're able to grow replacement organs to spec... although that's pretty nifty, too...  What do you plan to do in the post-energy economy?